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College Football Betting Basics
Less Statistical Analysis, More Angle Driven
Angle #1: Revenge
Revenge is one of the greatest motivational tools in existence. I would argue that neither people nor
teams should be motivated by revenge, but the fact remains that both often are. You have to be careful
when using a revenge angle, however, and make sure that a game really does have a revenge factor. A
bad team that lost handily to a much better team does not have a revenge factor. A team that was losing
badly, then had the score run up on it because the coaches traded barbs during the week of the game
does have a revenge factor.
Revenge Theory 101 occurred when Notre Dame faced Miami (FL) during the last year of the Gerry Faust
coaching regime. Miami's coach at the time was Jimmy Johnson. As the end of the game approached,
Miami had the ball near the Notre Dame goal line, and rather than simply running out the clock,
Coach Johnson decided to score more points. The next year, Lou Holtz was coaching at Notre Dame
and the two teams played again. This time the outcome was much different as the underdog Irish
won the game outright. Was it solely revenge? No one will ever know, but revenge was certainly
a factor. Note: Some would argue that such a game does not qualify as a "revenge" game because
of the coaching change. I say that you should let the circumstances dictate what is and isn't a
revenge game.
Angle #2: New Coach/Road Ruin
How's this for a bad combination. Take a coach in his first year at a school that is leading his
team in the first road game under his regime. This is a recipe for disaster. Bet against teams
in this situation. An even worse situation for this team is if the quarterback is also making his
first collegiate start on the road (this is a good angle in and of itself!). This is basically a
no win, no cover situation for that team unless the players and coaches are very, very special.
Angle #3: The Double Whammy
Look for teams that start their season with a long undefeated streak. In college football, we
would be looking for about 5-0 to 7-0. Once the undefeated team loses, bet against them in their
next game. Sometimes teams lose because the have one bad game. Sometimes they lose because the
other team is just better. Often, however, these teams lose because they are going out of sync
or a period of time, or just haven't got the first loss out of their heads. At any rate, this
is one of the oldest, and most profitable angles in sports betting and should be used whenever
possible.
Angle #4: The Mid-Season Scandal
Scandals rock college sports every season. Whenever a scandal hits, coaches and school administrators
try to downplay the severity of the problem. They can say whatever they want. The truth is that
SCANDAL=HUGE DISTRACTION. When a scandal erupts during the season, bet against the affected team
in the very next game.
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