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boxcar

USA
1825 Posts
Posted - 03/18/2008 :  21:02:28  Show Profile Send boxcar a Private Message  Reply with Quote
(Post #17)

Let's quickly look at some races that were contested today. Let's begin with the 8th at MNR -- another no-brainer.


MNR 03/18/08 #8 (9:55): 6.0 Fur (Dirt) - Clm10k - Purse $11.9k - 3UP Females (O4-) [7-1] Page 8

Pgm                m                   Angle         No  98  24
 No   ~ML~  CFR     PCR PVR  --Rank--  Counter      Qly *PT* RS  Compounds / Premiums
================================================================================================
  8   5/2   225   bm236  39   6  4  1  7 0 3 5 1 -11 12  18  16  BA! BA* C+ C! DD+ DD! DD* F!
                                                                 FR! HP! PP! WO!
  6  30-1   193   bm218  20   7  7  8  4 0 4 7 1 -8  11  14   5  DLS! DLS* DP* HP! MDA* LU PP*
                                                                 SD! UFI+ WO! / SD
  4   6-1  S238   cm235  30   3  5  4  8 0 3 4 0 -9  10  14  15  A+ A! F+ F! PI+ PP! SD+ UFI+
                                                                 UFI* / SD
  2@ 20-1   187   cm250  25   8  1  5  4 0 4 2 1 -7  10  13  13  DD+ DLS+ DLS! FR! HP! PR2+ PR2!
                                                                 SD! / PR2 SD
  7   6-1  D232   bm230  25   4  6  5  5 2 2 4 1 -10  9  12  12  C+ C* HP+ LWC PP! UFI! WO! /
                                                                 +PT2 SRW
  3   7/2  P239   bm240  24   1  2  7  7 0 2 5 0 -8   8  12  17  C+ C! C* F+ FR! PP! UFI! / PR2
  5   3-1  D239   cm239  37   1  3  2  6 0 3 4 0 -10  4   8  21  A+ A* BC+ PP!
  1   6-1  D230    m214  33   5  8  3  5 0 2 4 1 -7   5   7  11  FR! HP+ PI* PP! / +PT2

--  1  Yallah Leah (6-1) <26:29> ------ { 5 D230 /  8   m214 /  3 33 247} -- [ 5 0 2 4 1 -7 ] --
FR! HP+ PI* PP! / +PT2                                                                                                          
+pt2 pgl pi pip fr / +fh dc / +wc y+ lc p / NWT BE IW -OD CD DA3 +HLR
80  80/160-70  230 | 66  82/148-60  208 | 60  17/ 77-26  103 | 75  78/153-61  214 | 4 9 2 0 2   

--  2  Rocket Ma'me (20-1) <79:24> ---- { 8  187 /  1  cm250 /  5 25 275} -- [ 4 0 4 2 1 -7 ] --
DD+ DLS+ DLS! FR! HP! PR2+ PR2! SD! / PR2 SD                                                                                    
hw pr2 +wr1 fr / +fh sd bw1 dd / p sow / INC IW CD DA1 DA4 !LL +IR
72  56/128-59  187 | 56  48/104-54  158 | 55  88/143-62  205 | 59  81/140-67  207 | 7 18 2 3 1  

--  3  Yourrootsreshowin (7/2) <80:11>  { 1 P239 /  2  bm240 /  7 24 264} -- [ 7 0 2 5 0 -8 ] --
C+ C! C* F+ FR! PP! UFI! / PR2                                                                                                  
pt2 pr2 tc +c +f134 fr ufi / +fh uc / wc -low p the sow / BE BUF IW DA1 DA2 DA3 DA4 +LL
92  74/166-73  239 | 83  32/115-49  164 | 86  74/160-68  228 | 93  71/164-73  237 | 4 14 2 5 0  

--  4  Claiming The Sto (6-1) <79:11> - { 3 S238 /  5  cm235 /  4 30 265} -- [ 8 0 3 4 0 -9 ] --
A+ A! F+ F! PI+ PP! SD+ UFI+ UFI* / SD                                                                                          
ses *tr2 hw pi a -bc -f124 ufi / +fh sd fe / wc a2 p sow / BE BUF IW CD DA1 DA2 DA3 DA4 LL
79  81/160-78  238 | 87  76/163-72  235 | 82  57/139-64  203 | 77  78/155-75  230 | 4 19 2 5 1  

--  5  Spellsinger (3-1) <38:115> ---- { 1 D239 /  3  cm239 /  2 37 276} -- [ 6 0 3 4 0 -10 ] --
A+ A* BC+ PP!                                                                                                                   
es hw +hilo a -bc bufi / fh bw2 fe / +wc +wucd a2 p / NWT -BUF IW OD CD DA1 DA2 DA3 DCDW +LL
74  76/150-62  212 | 85  81/166-73  239 | 81  65/146-58  204 | 87  75/162-72  234 | 5 20 2 3 1  

--  6  Tip Top (30-1) <78:8> ---------- { 7  193 /  7  bm218 /  8 20 238} -- [ 4 0 4 7 1 -8 ] --
DLS! DLS* DP* HP! MDA* LU PP* SD! UFI+ WO! / SD                                                                                 
tr1 sh *lohi -fdk / +fh sd dcls uc / y- cb -low lw dp lu !sow / NWT -BUF INC IW DA1 DA4 !LL IR
68  54/122-55  177 | 47  93/140-53  193 | 55  78/133-63  196 | 65  64/129-58  187 | 7 42 2 5 4  

--  7  One Sweet Thing (6-1) <133:4> - { 4 D232 /  6  bm230 /  5 25 255} -- [ 5 2 2 4 1 -10 ] --
C+ C* HP+ LWC PP! UFI! WO! / +PT2 SRW                                                                                           
+pt2 pgl +lohi +c ufi / srw sw / fh dc / lw lc p sow / BE IW DA1 DA2 DA3 DA4 NRT +DCDW +HLR !LL
72  89/161-71  232 | 72  59/131-45  176 | 77  75/152-67  219 | 78  64/142-55  197 | 4 13 2 1 1  

--  8  Just In Jest (5/2) <38:16> ---- { 6  225 /  4  bm236 /  1 39 275} -- [ 7 0 3 5 1 -11 ] --
BA! BA* C+ C! DD+ DD! DD* F! FR! HP! PP! WO!                                                                                    
pt2 -ses pr ba +c f134 fr / fh bw1 dd / +wc y- lc p sow /
NWT NBE -BUF INC IW OD CD DA1 DA3 +HLR LL
77  79/156-67  223 | 92  65/157-68  225 | 92  72/164-72  236 | 84  76/160-70  230 | 5 18 2 5 4

While the PT ratings themselves more or less suggested a 50-50 chance for an upset, the PT pattern more strongly suggested such a finish. Five horses' PTs came within 6 points of the top rated 8's. So much for an investment potential overview.

Now, when we just casually peruse the table's CAs and PAs, how can we not see immediately that the 6's VP stood heads and shoulders above the rest of this field's? This pony owned 5 of the strongest versions to his CAs. If 3 constitutes a strong VP, how much better does 5?
And was not the 2 betable in this race, having the DD/PR2 combo? This horse was all set to "explode" And this pony was a 2-point HPCR type. Here is how it finished in this short field.

Mountaineer Casino Racetrack & Resort - March 18, 2008 - Race 8 Results

Pgm  Horse                 Fin    Odds 
=======================================
 6   Tip Top                1    37.90
 2   Rocket Ma'me           2    30.20
 4   Claiming the Storm     3     7.70
 7   One Sweet Thing        4     8.10
 5   Spellsinger            5     4.00
 8   Just in Jest           6     2.40*
 3   Yourrootsreshowin      7     2.80
 1   Yallah Leah            8     4.40

Pgm Horse                          Win    Place     Show
========================================================
 6  Tip Top                      77.80    24.80    10.80
 2  Rocket Ma'me                          30.00    13.60
 4  Claiming the Storm                              5.40

Amt  Bet Type       Pgm No's    Mutuel 
=======================================
$2   Perfecta       6-2         $643.40
$2   Trifecta       6-2-4       $2,810.20
$2   Pick 3         1-4-6       $1,536.20

Starters: 8
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Luvthexacta

USA
47 Posts
Posted - 03/18/2008 :  23:00:14  Show Profile Send Luvthexacta a Private Message  Reply with Quote
(Post #18)

Hey Sweep. No performance enhancing drugs for me. The only thing I am high on is BHM. LOL! Thanks for the compliment though. To tell you the truth, I am a pretty small time player. I only invest $50 - $100 in a night at the simulcast facility. I am learning quickly which races to put my money in and I have no qualms about betting very long priced horses to win and on top in the exactas and trifectas. The more I play using this methodology, the more I get a sense about which horses are ready to go. The $127.40 horse at HOU is a good example. I just kind of "knew" she was ready to go and the angle combinations seemed just right. That was a very confident bet. When I first started studying with the group, I was very overwhelmed with the volume of information, but it is all making a lot of sense to me now. It is really a lot like learning another language. The more you use it, the easier and better it gets. I don't know if all that makes a lot of sense or not, but that is how it is working for me.

Anyway, thanks for the compliments and good luck in your handicapping escapades!

LTE
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boxcar

USA
1825 Posts
Posted - 03/19/2008 :  10:47:01  Show Profile Send boxcar a Private Message  Reply with Quote
(Post #19)

quote:
Originally posted by Luvthexacta

Hey Sweep. No performance enhancing drugs for me. The only thing I am high on is BHM. LOL! Thanks for the compliment though. To tell you the truth, I am a pretty small time player. I only invest $50 - $100 in a night at the simulcast facility. I am learning quickly which races to put my money in and I have no qualms about betting very long priced horses to win and on top in the exactas and trifectas. The more I play using this methodology, the more I get a sense about which horses are ready to go. The $127.40 horse at HOU is a good example. I just kind of "knew" she was ready to go and the angle combinations seemed just right. That was a very confident bet. When I first started studying with the group, I was very overwhelmed with the volume of information, but it is all making a lot of sense to me now. It is really a lot like learning another language. The more you use it, the easier and better it gets. I don't know if all that makes a lot of sense or not, but that is how it is working for me.

Anyway, thanks for the compliments and good luck in your handicapping escapades!

LTE


If you continue learning at your current rate, continue to cultivate the "eye of the tiger" attitude when it comes time to put your money where your opinion is and adopt smart and consistent wagering strategies, I predict, unequivocally, that the results you will achieve will go well beyond your wildest expectations. You can bank on this.

Boxcar
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boxcar

USA
1825 Posts
Posted - 03/24/2008 :  21:33:28  Show Profile Send boxcar a Private Message  Reply with Quote
(Post #20)

This next race will probably be the Shorty of the Month. Very difficult to believe the crowd allowed this winner to go off at the price he did.

Students, please add to your PA list all the versions to the SCW1, 2 and 3 angles. Been meaning to tell everyone this, but it keeps slipping my mind.

Not much needs to be said about this race other than the fact that the PT ratings didn't give a clear indication which way this race would go in terms of potential investment opportunities. However, the PT pattern did. Four horses had PTs that were well within 7 points of the top rated horse's. Therefore, a contentious race was suggested.

Boxcar

BM 03/24/08 #5 (5:49): 8.0 Fur (Turf) - Clm25k - Purse $26k - 3YO [5-1]                  Page 5

Pgm                T                   Angle         No  64  18
 No   ~ML~  CFR     PCR PVR  --Rank--  Counter      Qly *PT* RS  Compounds / Premiums
================================================================================================
  4   5/2  D244    T239  24   2  1  4  4 4 2 0 1 -9   8  14  14  HP+ MW! PI+ SWG* / +FFW FPD
                                                                 +HWL1 +PT2
  5  10-1   208  bcm214  18   6  5  6  2 5 2 3 0 -6   9  12   4  DP* MW! PP+ SMW! SWG! WO+ /
                                                                 +FFW FPD SCW1
  1@  7/2   213   cm239  26   5  1  2  4 3 3 2 1 -9   7  12  13  A* DLS! FR! HP! SA+ SWG! / FPD
  3   9/5   231   cM234  24   4  4  4  6 4 1 6 0 -5   8  11   9  A+ A! PP* SWG! UFI+ UFI* / -FPD
                                                                 +SFW
  2   5-1  s236  bcM235  25   3  3  3  4 1 2 0 1 -6   4  10  12  F! HP+ / +PT2 SCW1
  6   8-1  D248   cm209  33   1  6  1  4 2 2 0 0 -5   1   5  13  UFI+

--  1  Carson's Melody (7/2) <36:8> --- { 5  213 /  1  cm239 /  2 26 265} -- [ 4 3 3 2 1 -9 ] --
A* DLS! FR! HP! SA+ SWG! / FPD                                                                                                  
pr fdk -a fr / ffw sw fpd / fh bw1 uc / cb p / NWT -BUF INC IW OD DA1 DA2 DA3 +LL
74  64/138-64  202 | 66  77/143-70  213 | 91  75/166-75  241 | 80  78/158-68  226 | 3 9 1 1 0   

--  2  Tahoe Blues (5-1) <21:6> ------- { 3 s236 /  3 bcM235 /  3 25 260} -- [ 4 1 2 0 1 -6 ] --
F! HP+ / +PT2 SCW1                                                                                                              
+pt2 pgl pip f123 / scw1 / fh uc / BE IW -OD CLS *HLR LL
77  81/158-78  236 | 62  95/157-78  235 | 67  82/149-71  220 | 62  87/149-71  220 | 3 7 2 1 1   

--  3  Down By The Lake (9/5) <38:6> -- { 4  231 /  4  cM234 /  4 24 258} -- [ 6 4 1 6 0 -5 ] --
A+ A! PP* SWG! UFI+ UFI* / -FPD +SFW                                                                                            
*tr2 sh lohi fdk a ufi / +sfw piw sw -fpd / -fh / +wc +wucd y+ low lc p / OD DA1 DA2 DA4 +LL
85  71/156-75  231 | 66  82/148-73  221 | 64  94/158-76  234 | 66  72/138-64  202 | 3 7 2 0 1   

--  4  Sportsbookjunkee (5/2) <35:5> -- { 2 D244 /  1   T239 /  4 24 263} -- [ 4 4 2 0 1 -9 ] --
HP+ MW! PI+ SWG* / +FFW FPD +HWL1 +PT2                                                                                          
+pt2 pi tc f124 / +ffw +hwl1 hwl2 fpd / +fh uc / NWT BE BUF OD CD DA1 DA4 *THR +LL
90  74/164-80  244 | 79  72/151-72  223 | 86  66/152-69  221 | 80  68/148-73  221 | 3 8 1 2 1   

--  5  Ballet Way (10-1) <57:6> ------- { 6  208 /  5 bcm214 /  6 18 232} -- [ 2 5 2 3 0 -6 ] --
DP* MW! PP+ SMW! SWG! WO+ / +FFW FPD SCW1                                                                                       
pt2 pgl / +ffw hwl1 scw1 sw fpd / +fh uc / -low lw dp / NWT BE DA1 NRT *HLR LL
66  75/141-66  207 | 65  83/148-60  208 | 70  81/151-63  214 | 3 3 1 0 0                        

--  6  Patriotic Prince (8-1) <31:7> -- { 1 D248 /  6  cm209 /  1 33 242} -- [ 4 2 2 0 0 -5 ] --
UFI+                                                                                                                            
+pt1 !tr2 pgl lohi / ffw sw / +fh uc / NWT BE IW OD DA1
76  94/170-78  248 | 89  57/146-58  204 | 79  82/161-71  232 | 75  71/146-63  209 | 3 4 2 0 0   



Bay Meadows - March 24, 2008 - Race 5 Results

Pgm  Horse                 Fin    Odds 
=======================================
 5   Ballet Way             1    44.30
 1   Carson's Melody        2     6.20
 2   Tahoe Blues            3     5.60
 4   Sportsbookjunkee       4     1.10*
 3   Down by the Lake       5     1.80
 6   Patriotic Prince       6    16.20

Pgm Horse                          Win    Place     Show
========================================================
 5  Ballet Way                   90.60    27.00     6.20
 1  Carson's Melody                        6.80     3.20
 2  Tahoe Blues                                     3.40

Amt  Bet Type       Pgm No's    Mutuel 
=======================================
$1   Exacta         5-1         $240.70
$1   Trifecta       5-1-2       $1,653.00
$2   Daily Double   6-5         $65.00
$1   Pick 3         3-6-5       $119.20

Starters: 6
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