Pro Basketball presents lots of rebounding opportunities at the sportsbook.
Okay, so that headline is a play on words, but it is also very, very true. Let me explain. There are several times in an NBA season, or in the NBA playoffs, when teams get soundly defeated. This usually occurs because teams will have a dismal shooting night. These dismal shooting nights are usually caused, in turn, because of tired legs, jetlag, a bad night's sleep in a bed designed for a person up to 6'5" - not a seven footer.
These blowouts set up beautiful sports betting opportunities. When a team is coming off a poor shooting performance, look for them to bounce back in the next game. To ensure a good spread, also insist that they lost by double digits in that game.
A team that lost by more than 15 points (20 is even better) usually bounce back after an embarrassing loss. Rest usually helps this bounce back. So does the fact that NBA players are so good that they are not prone to having poor shooting efforts in consecutive games.
Remember, we are looking for value. Anybody can decide to bet on a division leading home favorite that is playing against a sub-.500 team. It takes a confident, value seeking sports bettor to bet on that same sub-.500 team when they are coming off a loss in their previous game. Be a confident sports bettor and choose the value.
The NBA is similar to the NFL when it comes to betting. By this, we mean that Las Vegas bookmakers have a very good handle on getting the point spreads right. The best opportunities for betting on pro basketball are, in our opinion, found in the Totals.
NBA games are fairly predictable, yet they are highly unpredictable. SAY WHAT? What we are trying to say is that NBA games are predictable to the extent that the home court team enjoys a very sizeable advantage when it comes to wins and losses. There's no news there, as this applies to every sport. The NBA is also very unpredictable in that because of the nature of the sport of basketball, and the very difficult travel of NBA teams, there are some nights were one team (sometimes both) won't show up. This results in some very bad blowouts.
These games are hard to predict. It seems that whenever we think that a team is ripe for a decisive road loss, they will win the game outright. In most cases, NBA games should be played very carefully when it comes to Side bets. Our feeling is that the best way to beat the NBA is by playing Total wagers.
It is much easier to predict that an NBA team is going to play its type of game, win or lose, than it is to predict that a team will win or lose a game or cover a spread. The high-flying Phoenix Suns (we always have to go to the extreme example) like to score points in bunches by fast breaking at every opportunity. No matter whom they play, they will try to force the tempo. Similarly, a defensive minded team like the Detroit Pistons will always try to slow the game down with defense. Winning the bet then becomes a matter of analyzing the degree of success that a team, or teams, will have in playing the game at their tempo.
A good way to make such a call is to look at the average points scored and allowed for the teams playing in a game. Then use your judgment to determine how close each team will come to scoring its average. Hint: Strong defensive teams are more likely to hold a high scoring team in check, than is a high scoring team to make the defensive team play an up tempo game. From this, you can then try to estimate the actual final score of the game. It is recommended that you do your analysis before looking at the actual Total for the game.
Here is an example in looking at a Total wage, but not using the actual numbers. Suppose you have a game where Phoenix is playing at Seattle. Seattle and Phoenix are both pretty up tempo teams, but Phoenix is the more offense minded of the two. The game is in Seattle, so you would expect some home court advantage. This advantage would likely occur early in the game and later in the game. Our view is that in a game like this, Phoenix will be able to take the game to their tempo since the team they are playing does not have a particularly strong defensive mindset. We would expect Phoenix to go over its season point average and allow the other team to score right around their average allowed. We would expect Seattle to score slightly above their average and allow more than their average.
Now, let's say that we say predict a score of Phoenix 115, Seattle 109, for a Total of 224. The last thing to do is to look at the Total line and hope that it is at least 4 points different than ours one way or the other. If the Total is 220 or less we will play the over. If the total is 228 or more we will play the under.
Be careful: If you handicap to a Total of 224 and the actual line is 210, you have to double check to make sure that you are not missing something. The lines makers very rarely make large errors, particularly later in the season, so always make sure to understand why you are getting such a great play before you rush to make a huge bet.
Try betting NBA totals and maximize your winnings.