Less Statistical Analysis, More Angle Driven
Revenge is one of the greatest motivational tools in existence. I would argue that neither people nor teams should be motivated by revenge, but the fact remains that both often are. You have to be careful when using a revenge angle, however, and make sure that a game really does have a revenge factor. A bad team that lost handily to a much better team does not have a revenge factor. A team that was losing badly, then had the score run up on it because the coaches traded barbs during the week of the game does have a revenge factor.
Revenge Theory 101 occurred when Notre Dame faced Miami (FL) during the last year of the Gerry Faust coaching regime. Miami's coach at the time was Jimmy Johnson. As the end of the game approached, Miami had the ball near the Notre Dame goal line, and rather than simply running out the clock, Coach Johnson decided to score more points. The next year, Lou Holtz was coaching at Notre Dame and the two teams played again. This time the outcome was much different as the underdog Irish won the game outright. Was it solely revenge? No one will ever know, but revenge was certainly a factor. Note: Some would argue that such a game does not qualify as a "revenge" game because of the coaching change. I say that you should let the circumstances dictate what is and isn't a revenge game.
How's this for a bad combination. Take a coach in his first year at a school that is leading his team in the first road game under his regime. This is a recipe for disaster. Bet against teams in this situation. An even worse situation for this team is if the quarterback is also making his first collegiate start on the road (this is a good angle in and of itself!). This is basically a no win, no cover situation for that team unless the players and coaches are very, very special.
Look for teams that start their season with a long undefeated streak. In college football, we would be looking for about 5-0 to 7-0. Once the undefeated team loses, bet against them in their next game. Sometimes teams lose because the have one bad game. Sometimes they lose because the other team is just better. Often, however, these teams lose because they are going out of sync or a period of time, or just haven't got the first loss out of their heads. At any rate, this is one of the oldest, and most profitable angles in sports betting and should be used whenever possible.
Scandals rock college sports every season. Whenever a scandal hits, coaches and school administrators try to downplay the severity of the problem. They can say whatever they want. The truth is that SCANDAL=HUGE DISTRACTION. When a scandal erupts during the season, bet against the affected team in the very next game.