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NFL Pro Football Betting Basics
Use key angles to identify hidden Pro Football Betting Opportunities
Angle #1: The Rebound
This is an angle that's been around for a long time in all sports. Teams that look to be in bad recent form
are a good bet to rebound in their next game. In this case, we are looking for teams that lost badly in
their last game. Badly is defined as losing against the spread by 10 or more points.
Next, we are looking for our down and out team to be playing a team that is flying high. Flying high is
defined as a team that won against the spread by ten points or more. We are betting on the team that lost
badly last week to rebound this week. Our minimum 'spread" in this case would be 20 (one lost against
the spread by 10, while the other covered by 10). The bigger the 'spread," the better the wagering
opportunity. Just remember, we are not talking about margins of victory or defeat here. Rather, we
are talking about margins by which the spread was either covered, or not covered.
Angle #2: The Anti-Wager:
Here, we are looking for teams that either won or lost big last week without regard to the point spread.
We are looking to bet against teams the won big if they are favored this week. We are also looking to
bet for teams that lost in blowout fashion should they be the underdogs this week. An especially appealing
wager using this angle would be to play a team that got blown out as a favorite last week, and is an
underdog this week.
The beauty of this wager is that it brings a lot of value, for the betting public (a) loves favorites,
and (b) it goes against what the masses will logically (and wrongly) be thinking.
Angle #3: Give the Offense a Rest
The public loves to bet on high scoring offenses. We are going to bet against any team with an offense
that has racked up big yardage and point totals for two consecutive weeks if they are favored in their
next game. Teams in this situation have proven, for a variety of reasons, that they will eventually let
down. We want to exploit the letdown.
Angle #4: Good Defenses Beat Good Offenses
As sports investors, we are interested in winning. Sometimes, winning isn't pretty. Pretty teams with
good offenses are very fun to watch. Personally, I would rather win that be entertained. When a good
offense meets up with a good defense, play the defense every time.
Angle #5: The Streak Rule
No, we aren't referring to college pranks here. We are talking about teams that are streaking in either a
good or a bad way. This is a very simple angle: Bet against teams that have won three in a row, and bet
for teams that have lost three in a row. Underdogs simply bring so much value to the table that it is a
no-brainer to play them whenever the scenario is right.
Angle #6: Revenge
I don't view revenge games in pro football the same as I do for college football. Pro football players
should be able to be motivated without having to rely on emotional factors such as revenge. My advice
here is to leave revenge as a college angle.
Angle #7: The Double Whammy
This is an angle that applies very well to all sports betting. Look for teams that start their season with
a long undefeated streak. In pro football, we would be looking for about 6-0, or so, but the total could be
less. Once the undefeated team loses, bet against them in their next game. Sometimes teams lose because the
have one bad game. Sometimes they lose because the other team is just better. Often, however, these teams
lose because they are going out of sync for a period of time, or just haven't got the first loss out of their
heads. At any rate, this is one of the oldest, and most profitable angles in sports betting and should be
used whenever possible.
Angle #8: The Home Underdog
This could be the most well known sports betting angle of all time. Did you know, however, that just betting
home underdogs is really a 50-50 proposition? It's true. A better home 'dog angle is to wait until a team is
home for the second consecutive week and lost the previous home game. Of course, they will need to be an
underdog this week to be a play under this angle.
Angle #9: Pre-Season Football
Here is a very solid football angle: Do not wager on pre-season football. Try another sport (baseball is in
full swing) and wait for regular season opportunities when you know who is going to play and for how long.
Please, don't waste your money.
Angle #10: The Spoiler
Teams that are out of the playoffs love to play the spoiler. The common public theory is that teams in must-win
games will rise to the occasion over lowly non-contenders who are playing for nothing. I prefer to think the
opposite way. Look for teams with nothing to lose. They play more relaxed and often come out gunning. I
actually love watching these games because teams out of contention tend to pull out all the stops in an effort
to pull of an upset.
Angle #11: New Coach/Road Ruin
The learning curve for NFL teams in general, and quarterbacks in particular, is huge when a new coach has been
hired. Every coach or coordinator employs a unique offense. Unless a QB has played in a similar offense, he
must basically learn his position anew. This spells disaster when teams are going on the road for the first
time, and second time and third time... If a new coach has a rookie QB starting for him, well, they might not
cover a road point spread all year long! This makes sports betting fun. If you're not sure what I mean, just
think of David Carr in his rookie season with Houston.
Even More Football Wagering Resources
Making Your own Point Spreads: The Real Key to Finding Value
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