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Super Bowl XXXIX
Sports Betting Acumen's Guide
| Game |
Spread |
Money Line |
Total Points |
More |
| Sun 2/6 |
New England Patriots |
-7 |
-266 |
OVER 47.5 -105
| Props
|
| 03:25 PM |
Philadelphia Eagles |
+7 |
+246 |
UNDER 47.5 -105 |
As hard as it is to imagine, this year's Super Bowl actually features the two teams that were supposed to get
there. The New England Patriots have a chance to win their 3rd Super Bowl in the past four years, and thus,
certify themselves as an official sports dynasty. The Philadelphia Eagles come into the big game missing two
of their leading receivers, and assuming the rare (for them) role of underdog.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles find themselves in the unfamiliar role of underdog. The Eagles suffered a major setback
late in the season when they lost superstar wide receiver Terrell Owens with an ankle injury. Matters were made
even worse in the NFC Championship game when the Eagles lost Chad Lewis. So, do they Eagles have a fighting
chance? In a word, yes. It won't be easy, but the Eagles do still have weapons on the offensive side of the ball.
And let's not forget that stellar defense. This is the Super Bowl where defense is king. Philadelphia's defense
should be able to hold New England's offense somewhat in check. The question is, can the Eagles offense: (a)
score enough points to win and (b) control the clock enough so that their defense does not get worn down? It won't
be easy.
 Place your Bets!
New England Patriots
To many observers, the New England Patriots are a superb football team that embraces the team concept, has a superior
coaching staff, a big game quarterback, and may possibly rank as one of the best football dynasties ever. These observers
are right on the money. How do I know? That easy, I've been watching them for the past few years.
Where do you begin when trying to figure out ways to beat this team? For a team 'without superstars," they sure seem
to have lots of superstars. They are a different kind of team in that their best superstar may very well be head coach Bill
Belichick. This guy may be worth 7 points per game by himself!
Ideally, a team will only beat the Patriots if they can run the ball, or if the Patriots beat themselves. The latter is
not really a possibility given the Pats performance in big games over the past few years. This year, they lost to an excellent
Pittsburgh Steelers team and played one very poor game against the Miami Dolphins (the Any Given Sunday Theory at work).
So, the burning question is: Can the Patriots make it make it 3 out of 4 Super Bowl victories? Absolutely.
Place your Bets!
Super Bowl Betting Strategy
Where do we begin? The Super Bowl is the largest sporting event in the world. Last year, $80 million dollars was bet on
the game legally in Las Vegas. Much, much more than this was wagered illegally all over the world. This year's game figures
to generate more wagering action than ever before. Some industry experts predict that there will be well in excess of $80
million bet this year at Vegas sports book and another $400 million or so bet at offshore sports books.
So why does this one event generate so much action? It's just one game after all. It's because unlike any other sporting
event during the year, the Super Bowl isn't about the professional gambler. It's about the amateur. It's about everyone and
anyone, even those willing to simply fill in a square in the office pool. There is no shortage of betting opportunities for
those interested in making a Super Bowl wager.
Proposition Bets:
Proposition Bets, or Props as they are more commonly known, are a very fun way for casual bettors to get some cheap action on the
Super Bowl. It never ceases to amaze me how many proposition bets the Vegas sportsbooks can come up with. Rumor has it that they
work 72 hours straight after the Super Bowl teams have been determined just coming up with all of the different Super Bowl wagers
and corresponding lines. Talk out work!
It is estimated that up to 50% of all the money bet on the Super Bowl - we're talking $80 million plus legally wagered in the U.S.
alone - will be bet on proposition bets. Why is this? Proposition bets give fans a chance to get action on the game for different
factors that don't affect the outcome of the game. They are fun bets that don't require special angles, insight, or acumen. What's
not to like?
If there is a downside to props it is that they epitomize gambling. That's not necessarily a bad thing. This is, after all, the
Super Bowl we're talking about. Believe it or not, there are many proposition bets that can actually give bettors a better chance
to win that the more traditional "straight" bets. The more betting options that the lines makers must address - last year there
more than 400 props available - the more prone they are to error.
If so really want to take a stab at hitting some prop bets, give yourself a chance by using the following tips:
- As has already been noted, look for miscalculations in the prop bets. For example, if the over under on a 3rd receivers total yards receiving for the game is 18, and the receiver averaged 40 yards/game for the regular season, that would constitute an oversight by the line maker.
- Be aware of the game plan for both coaches. If you believer, for example, that Bill Belichick plans to take few chances and play a field position game, then you may want to avoid the over totals on the Patriots wide receivers and instead opt for the over on Corey Dillon's total carries and/or yards. If you think that Philadelphia lacks the confidence to run against New England's front eight, and instead wants to try (like so many others) to exploit New England's banged up secondary, then look toward the over totals for Donovan McNabbs pass attempts and similar props.
- Don't put yourself in the position to lose a prop bet on one play. If a receiver had an over/under total of 16 for his longest pass reception, understand that you can easily lose the wager on a single play.
- Don't bet on props that involve pure luck. Examples of these would be the coin toss, what player will score the first touchdown, and whether a quarterback's first pass will be complete or incomplete.
- Use counter intuition. What's this? Here is a great example. The quarterback for the losing team will usually have many more pass attempts, completions, and yards passing that the quarterback of the winning team.
- All of these tips boil down to one thing: Acumen. Use your Sports Betting Acumen to make smart and informed prop bets. Hey, it's okay to gamble too, but only on this one day. It is, after all, the Super Bowl, which means that it is a day to enjoy.
Sports Betting Acumen's Top Super Bowl Proposition Bets
Our belief is that if you are going to bet the Super Bowl props, you should do so only if you are to be fairly compensated for
your risk. This means that you must insist on getting both value and price if you are going to make a proposition bets. There are
many prop bets that have some value. Most, however, lack in the price that they will return. You must insist on getting price
and value. The following out are tops proposition bets based on the very important concept of price. They are also based on
the concept that we believe that the Patriots are going to pound the Eagles.
- 1st half: Patriots lead by 10-12 points: +822
- 1st half: Patriots lead by 13-14 points: +1039
- 1st half: Eagles lead by 1-3 points: +1081
- 1st half: Eagles lead by > 9.5 points: +1081
- 1st half: Total points 18-20: +682
- 1st half: Total points 25-27: +904
- Score Tied at Halftime: +932
- GW MOV: Patriots by 13-15: +1076
- GW MOV: Patriots by 16-19: +1082
- Total Points Scored in Game 41-45: +479
- Total Points Scored by Patriots 30-33: +608
- Total Points Scored by Eagles 11-14: +626
- Player to Score First TD in Game - T.Brady: +6793
- Player to Score First TD in Game - D.McNabb: +2679
- Player to Score First TD in Game - C.Dillon: +548
- Player to Score First TD in Game - Owens, Pinkston, or Mitchell: +639
Side Bets
The line for the Super Bowl opened with the Patriots set as 6 ½ point favorites. It is currently at 7 points. I believe that
line could easily rise to 8 points or higher in the coming week. This is a good thing. The betting public typically over bets
the favorite. This is very true for the NFL playoffs, and especially true for the Super Bowl. Now, if the favorite over bet,
then the underdog must be....you got it - UNDERBET.
The Philadelphia Eagles are a (current) 7 point underdog, are playing the mighty New England Patriots, and are missing both their
superstar wide receiver, Terrell Owens, and their stellar tight end Chad Lewis. What does this make them? A classic contrarian
play! Sports Betting Acumen recommends taking the Eagles and the points as long as you can get more 7 points. If the point
spread is 7 of less, you may take the Patriots, or simply pass the side bets. Caution: Pay very close attention to the Terrell
Owens situation. If he does play it could affect the line by as much as two points in the Eagles favor.
Totals
The over/under total for the Super Bowl is currently 47 ½ points. Given the level of defense played by these two excellent teams,
we believe that this total seems high. Be forewarned, however, for everybody thought that last year's Super Bowl would be an extremely
low scoring and very boring game. All that happened was that the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots played one of the best,
most exciting games ever, crushing the total by halftime.
We expect Philadelphia to try to compensate for their missing receivers by engaging in a short passing game and employing the running
skills of Bryant Westbrook. They are also likely to move Donovan McNabb out of the pocket a lot to keep the Patriot defense honest.
If the strategy works, it will result in long, but time consuming drives that result in field goals.
New England will play their usual game, mixing an effective running game, with an efficient passing game, controlling the clock and
not making mistakes.
Both teams will focus on winning the field position battle and should not take too many chances with the ball early.
Sports Betting Acumen recommends playing the under as long as it stays at the present 47 ½ or goes higher.
Parlays
We do not recommend parlay bets. For further explanation, please see the The Mathematics of Sports Betting page. If
you do choose to play a parlay, you may go with our recommended side and total bets, or branch out on your own. Keep
in mind, however, that the Super Bowl is a very, very difficult game to wager on and win. At this point in the season,
we are down to two excellent teams, and there are no secrets that will give special insight into the game.
Teasers
While we don't normally recommend teaser bets, we think that the Super Bowl is an exception. The sides and totals are
so tightly set that teasing the point spread and total in either direction can be the difference between winning and losing.
If you are planning to play a teaser and want to tease the line toward New England (down to New England -1 for a two team
teaser), you should do so now before the line goes up. If you want to tease the line toward Philadelphia, by all means
wait so that you can get a better spread.
Teasing the total is a more difficult endeavor. Since we believe that the game will go under the current total, we are
inclined to tease the over/under up to 53 ½ to give ourselves more room for the under. If you believe that the game can
potentially go over, then you may consider teasing the total down and hoping for an over.
Our recommended two team teaser play is to increase the total to 53 ½ and go under, while moving the line to New England -1
(based on the current 7 point spread).
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