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Super Bowl XXXIX
Betting Lines & Propositions
| Game |
Spread |
Money Line |
Total Points |
More |
| Sun 2/6 |
New England Patriots |
-7 |
-266 |
OVER 47.5 -105
| Props
|
| 03:25 PM |
Philadelphia Eagles |
+7 |
+246 |
UNDER 47.5 -105 |
Proposition Bets:
Proposition Bets, or Props as they are more commonly known, are a very fun way for casual bettors to get some cheap action on the
Super Bowl. It never ceases to amaze me how many proposition bets the Vegas sportsbooks can come up with. Rumor has it that they
work 72 hours straight after the Super Bowl teams have been determined just coming up with all of the different Super Bowl wagers
and corresponding lines. Talk out work!
It is estimated that up to 50% of all the money bet on the Super Bowl - we're talking $80 million plus legally wagered in the U.S.
alone - will be bet on proposition bets. Why is this? Proposition bets give fans a chance to get action on the game for different
factors that don't affect the outcome of the game. They are fun bets that don't require special angles, insight, or acumen. What's
not to like?
If there is a downside to props it is that they epitomize gambling. That's not necessarily a bad thing. This is, after all, the
Super Bowl we're talking about. Believe it or not, there are many proposition bets that can actually give bettors a better chance
to win that the more traditional "straight" bets. The more betting options that the lines makers must address - last year there
more than 400 props available - the more prone they are to error.
If so really want to take a stab at hitting some prop bets, give yourself a chance by using the following tips:
- As has already been noted, look for miscalculations in the prop bets. For example, if the over under on a 3rd receivers total yards receiving for the game is 18, and the receiver averaged 40 yards/game for the regular season, that would constitute an oversight by the line maker.
- Be aware of the game plan for both coaches. If you believer, for example, that Bill Belichick plans to take few chances and play a field position game, then you may want to avoid the over totals on the Patriots wide receivers and instead opt for the over on Corey Dillon's total carries and/or yards. If you think that Philadelphia lacks the confidence to run against New England's front eight, and instead wants to try (like so many others) to exploit New England's banged up secondary, then look toward the over totals for Donovan McNabbs pass attempts and similar props.
- Don't put yourself in the position to lose a prop bet on one play. If a receiver had an over/under total of 16 for his longest pass reception, understand that you can easily lose the wager on a single play.
- Don't bet on props that involve pure luck. Examples of these would be the coin toss, what player will score the first touchdown, and whether a quarterback's first pass will be complete or incomplete.
- Use counter intuition. What's this? Here is a great example. The quarterback for the losing team will usually have many more pass attempts, completions, and yards passing that the quarterback of the winning team.
- All of these tips boil down to one thing: Acumen. Use your Sports Betting Acumen to make smart and informed prop bets. Hey, it's okay to gamble too, but only on this one day. It is, after all, the Super Bowl, which means that it is a day to enjoy.
Sports Betting Acumen's Top Super Bowl Proposition Bets
Our belief is that if you are going to bet the Super Bowl props, you should do so only if you are to be fairly compensated for
your risk. This means that you must insist on getting both value and price if you are going to make a proposition bets. There are
many prop bets that have some value. Most, however, lack in the price that they will return. You must insist on getting price
and value. The following out are tops proposition bets based on the very important concept of price. They are also based on
the concept that we believe that the Patriots are going to pound the Eagles.
- 1st half: Patriots lead by 10-12 points: +822
- 1st half: Patriots lead by 13-14 points: +1039
- 1st half: Eagles lead by 1-3 points: +1081
- 1st half: Eagles lead by > 9.5 points: +1081
- 1st half: Total points 18-20: +682
- 1st half: Total points 25-27: +904
- Score Tied at Halftime: +932
- GW MOV: Patriots by 13-15: +1076
- GW MOV: Patriots by 16-19: +1082
- Total Points Scored in Game 41-45: +479
- Total Points Scored by Patriots 30-33: +608
- Total Points Scored by Eagles 11-14: +626
- Player to Score First TD in Game - T.Brady: +6793
- Player to Score First TD in Game - D.McNabb: +2679
- Player to Score First TD in Game - C.Dillon: +548
- Player to Score First TD in Game - Owens, Pinkston, or Mitchell: +639
Side Bets
The line for the Super Bowl opened with the Patriots set as 6 ½ point favorites. It is currently at 7 points. I believe that
line could easily rise to 8 points or higher in the coming week. This is a good thing. The betting public typically over bets
the favorite. This is very true for the NFL playoffs, and especially true for the Super Bowl. Now, if the favorite over bet,
then the underdog must be....you got it - UNDERBET.
Fund Your Account With Firepay
 I have found FirePay to be a very effective way to fund a sports betting account. What makes it so easy is
that you can actually write an electronic check to fund your account. Signing up takes only a few minutes, then you're off
to the sportsbook to place your Super Bowl bets.
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